A Shocking Poll For Kamala Harris and Donald Trump

Iowa’s most respected pollster, and one of the most respected in the United States, shows Kamala Harris beating Donald Trump by three points in the Hawkeye State.

Nov 03, 2024

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I have never sent an edition of my newsletter about a poll before, but this one shocked me, and it’s newsworthy.

The Des Moines Register/Selzer poll that was just released shows Kamala Harris up by three points in Iowa.

Harris: 47%

Trump: 44%

This has surprised everyone, and let me offer you some context to explain why.

Ann Selzer is not only the most respected pollster in Iowa but also one of the most respected pollsters in the country. Her track record and ethical standards are exemplary.

In 2020, her final poll had then-President Trump beating Joe Biden by 7 points in Iowa.

Trump ended up beating Biden in Iowa by 8 points.

In 2016, she had Trump beating Hillary Clinton by seven points in Iowa; he ended up beating her by 9 points in Iowa.

Here is Selzer’s full record in previous cycles. What is in parentheses is the final result. The R stands for Republican, and the D stands for Democrat.

In the years below, her final poll was startlingly close to the final result.

2022 Senate: R+12 (R+12)
2020 President: R+7 (R+8)
2020 Senate: R+4 (R+7)
2018 Governor: D+2 (R+3)
2016 President: R+7 (R+9)
2014 Senate: R+7 (R+8)
2012 President: D+5 (D+6)

It’s important to note that hours before the Selzer poll was released, Emerson College released their final poll which showed that Trump was beating Harris by 10 points in Iowa.

Some have wondered if Selzer is just maintaining her ethical standards by releasing these results.

What do they mean by that?

Selzer has a long history of not engaging in a practice in the polling business known as herding.

Herding is when a pollster adjusts the results of their polling to align more closely with other polls. This means that a pollster is releasing outliers even when they deviate from other public polls.

To be clear, when pollsters engage in this practice, they aren’t just changing the numbers randomly; they are adjusting their weighting, sample, or methodology to align with the results of other polls. This might include rebalancing demographics, shifting weighting assumptions, or even discarding outlier responses.

Why do pollsters do this? There is pressure to conform, and no pollster wants to be wrong.

It’s unethical — but sadly all too common, especially in highly watched races like the one for president.

I don’t like to email about polls because I don’t like to be in the business of appearing like I’m making public predictions, because I’m not.

I also don’t like to get people’s hopes up or bring their hopes down based on polling or my own gut (even though, I must admit, my intuition and analysis is quite spectacular — but more on that later).

But Selzer’s track record of ethical and statistically sound polling, along with this key metric below, is what has led me to send this edition of my newsletter.

Selzer’s latest poll shows that independent women back Harris by a 28-point margin, 57% to 29%.

Senior women support her by a more than 2-to-1 margin, 63% to 28%.

One major concern for Republicans this cycle has been whether women are going to abandon them in numbers that will have a meaningful impact on the presidential race.

Democrats have tried to exploit this vulnerability in the 2022 cycle and this cycle.

This issue for Republicans mostly relates to the overturning of Roe v. Wade, but there have been some other concerns about the Trump campaign’s strategy of focusing on issues and appearances that are intended to drive out more men than women. For example, think of all the focus on podcast interviews with popular male hosts.

But even if Harris doesn’t win Iowa and gain its six electoral votes, IF this trend of independent women moves forward in other parts of the country at this rate, it will be catastrophic for the Republican party and for Donald Trump personally given that he is relying upon winning the presidency in order to pardon himself.

IF being the key word, and you are hearing no predictions or projections from me.

I leave that for my group chats.

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